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China’s domestic production of fishmeal and fish oil in quarter IV 2023 might exceed that reported in quarter IV 2022
IFFO's Marine Ingredients Market Trends until December 2023
(UNITED KINGDOM, 1/12/2024)
A taste of the many statistics and analyses found in the market intelligence reports that IFFO dedicates to its members is reported below, covering IFFO’s analysis on marine ingredient market trends.
Global cumulative production of fishmeal and fish oil remains down
 As of 21st December, in Peru, around 66% of the second fishing season’s quota had been landed in the North-centre of the country. The early start of the second fishing season in the North-Centre of Peru, which took place in October and is usually scheduled in November, explains larger catches of small pelagics than usual when we compare October 2023 with October 2022.
In the USA, the menhaden fishing season officially ended in November. The new fishing season will resume in May 2024.
Cumulative total fishmeal production during the first ten months of 2023 was down by approximately 22% compared to the cumulative production reported through October 2022. These figures are based on a list of countries* considered in the IFFO reports. The predominant factor contributing to this decline must be attributed to the 60% year on year decrease in Peru, whose activities were heavily affected by the El Niño phenomenon and the subsequent cancellation of the April-June first fishing season of the year.
As for fish oil, total cumulative output in the first 10 months of 2023 was 20% down year on year. The supply shortage in Peru (due to both fewer landings and lower oil yields) was here again the main cause for such negative performance. Chile remained the only country that registered a positive change year on year thanks to improved catches and higher-than-average oil yields in the South of the country.
* Peru, Chile, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, UK, Ireland and Faroe Islands, USA, South Africa, Ivory Coast and Mauritius, Spain.
China’s slow economic recovery impacting fishmeal and fish oil consumption
 China’s domestic production of fishmeal and fish oil in quarter IV 2023 might exceed that reported in quarter IV 2022. Despite this, local fishmeal producers are encountering difficulties in selling their products due to an poorer demand and the abundance of standard quality fishmeal. As a result, the inventory of domestic fishmeal appears higher than it was a year ago. Cumulative imports of fishmeal from January to November have declined by 9.4% year on year, in line with the weaker domestic demand from both aqua- and piglet feed producers and the reduced Peruvian supply.
China’s 2023 fishmeal consumption in aquaculture is not expected to surpass that of 2022, although a rebound in the global supply of marine ingredients might open new scenarios. Similarly, the pig sector is grappling with subdued prices, hovering around a low point. The anticipated higher seasonal demand for the period November-February has yet to materialize. At this point in time, farmers are banking on improvements in the second half of 2024.
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