NASF is the world's largest seafood business conference and a leading meeting place for top industry executives (Photo: NASF)

NASF Overview: Outlook for global salmon supply, trade and prices

The North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF) salmon seminar on March 7th will host a number of world's leading speakers and industry experts.

Norwegian Seafood Export Council (NSEC) Director Jan Trollvik will moderate the NASF salmon seminar featuring 7 well know industry stakeholders: Lars Liabo, Chairman of Kontali will present their updated outlook for supply, market and prices. Thereafter 1-2 experts from Chile will discuss the outlook for Chile`s recovery and prospects for further market expansion (speakers to be advised).

Jan Trollvik

Henning Beltestad, CEO for Leroy Seafood, the world’s 2nd largest salmon producer and marketer, will share his views on the salmon market outlook, as seen from his vantage point as a major international player and marketer.

Jason Whooley, CEO from BIM in Ireland will reveal his country’s plans for developing a new salmon farming business by going into the outer waters up to 5 km from land, allowing a potential new growth to commence. Perhaps this initiative, if successful, may launch a new wave of expansion in the North Atlantic?

Another mind-boggling and important speech will be given by Kjell Bjordal, Head of EWOS, one of the world’s largest fish feed producers. Mr. Bjordal will gaze into the “crystal ball” and address the following critical issue: “FAO predicts aquaculture to double from 60 million to 120 million tons per year in 20 years time. Impact on raw material?” Here should be some food for thought for salmon farmers, exporters and importers.

Henning Beltestad

A very timely theme will be delivered by NSEC marketing director Egil Sundheim, addressing the all-important market demand issue of: “Changes in salmon demand and consumer prices ”. Here Mr. Sundheim will present new and updated statistics and market parameters which may help understand these vital relationships.

Finally, Pareto's well-know analyst Mikael Clement will give his outlook for the stock listed salmon companies – as seen from the stock market perspective.

2011 was a year of contrasts for global salmon farmers. From record prices in the early parts of the year salmon prices plummeted to levels far below production costs in the fall of 2011. Salmon farmers saw record profits dwindle, with some even posting losses. Investors sent stock prices down sharply, with salmon farming stocks down 50-70 percent from their highs only a few months earlier. There were major differences in market responsiveness to lower prices: some markets took a major share of the supply growth as demand rose sharply on lower salmon prices, while other markets lagged as end user prices didn’t follow the sharp fall in producer prices.

2012 is only a few weeks old, but optimism around the salmon farming space appears to be on the rise. Salmon stocks on the OSE are up close to 20 percent YTD on average. Salmon prices are up sharply from the trough in October, although still shy of levels generating solid profitability for the average salmon farmer. Some markets are showing impressive salmon demand and market analysts have upgraded their salmon price forecasts.

Kjell Bjordal

2012 is expected to be another year of solid supply growth, but with a very different pattern compared to 2011. Have end-user market adapted to the lower price points, will we see incremental demand, and how will salmon prices react to the changing dynamics?

Another question in regards to the current year is supply patterns of Atlantic salmon as Chilean Atlantic salmon supply increases from 125k tons in 2010 to well in excess of 300k tons in 2012. So far around 90 percent of Chilean growth has been channeled to North- and South America and Asia, but will this continue? Norwegian farmers enjoy strong demand uptake in the Russian market, and with lower end user prices in several major EU markets demand dynamics should improve here as well.

But, how much short term growth potential does Russia have, and how quickly will consumers react to lower retail prices for salmon in the EU? Could other markets open up for Atlantic salmon? How big is the incremental demand in established markets for salmon in wake of lower end user prices, and is the demand big enough to compensate for supply growth around 10 percent in the current year?

Egil Sundheim

In the bigger picture salmon is a small source of protein, but with strong long-term growth potential given a growing global protein intake, a gradual rise in per-capita seafood consumption and a wider market footprint. However, an industry also requiring continued market- and product development by different players. How will changing market forces influence the industry structure? Is further consolidation on the agenda, and if so, what combination of vertical or horizontal consolidation is most likely?

These are all issues that are expected to be addressed by a number of different presenters at the NASF on Wednesday, March 7th 2012 at the "Outlook for global salmon supply, trade and prices" and on Thursday, March 8th at the NASF Seafood Corporate Finance Seminar.

North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF)

NASF is the world's largest seafood business conference and a leading meeting place for top industry executives.

The 7th NASF is to be staged in Oslo March 6-8, 2012. Explore cutting edge innovation, research, sustainability, policy, business, trade and capital markets issues.

Around 100 international top-level speakers and experts will address 10 NASF seminars over 3 days

Source: NASF

Margaret E.L. Stacey
Editor Companies and Products
[email protected]
www.seafood.media

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