Photo: VASEP/FIS

Vietnam's pangasius production is expected to continue increasing, despite competition from other producers

VIET NAM
Friday, March 14, 2025, 20:00 (GMT + 9)

The industry may benefit from the US's imposition of tariffs on Chinese tilapia.

According to Ms. Thu Hang, Editor of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), export prices are projected to rise during the peak season at the end of the year and into 2025.

Trade and Markets

Rabobank's Global Aquaculture Outlook for 2025 forecasts a 7% year-on-year increase in pangasius production. Vietnam is expected to remain the leading producer, with both production and export value growing in 2024. Despite competition from China, India, and Indonesia, Vietnam is poised for strong growth, which is anticipated to be further supported by US tariffs on China. In contrast, in Indonesia, severe weather due to the El Niño phenomenon from 2023 to mid-2024 significantly impacted pangasius production in 2024.

According to Vietnam Customs data, pangasius exports reached over USD 75 million in the first half of February 2025, a 118% increase over the same period last year. Cumulative pangasius exports as of February 15, 2025, reached over USD 208 million, a 5% increase over the same period in 2024. China, the United States, and Brazil remain the top three markets, although exports to China as of February 15 this year decreased by 8%.

Pangasius from Indonesia

Vietnam's pangasius exports to Malaysia have grown steadily in recent years, boosted by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Vietnam is the largest supplier of frozen pangasius to Malaysia, accounting for 95% of the country's total imports of the product. Since the CPTPP came into effect in January 2019, the agreement has played an important role in boosting trade between Vietnam and other member countries, especially Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, and Singapore.

Production in Indonesia fell sharply in 2024 compared to the previous year. However, this decrease in supply did not correlate with a rise in prices, as the average Indonesian consumer reduced purchases due to the weakening national economy.

Amid stagnant or even declining demand, processors and packers have been competing fiercely with each other in the domestic market while also striving to increase exports.

The HORECA (hotels, restaurants, and catering) market, where pangasius fillets are frequently served, is likely to be affected by the government's USD 18.9 billion budget cuts earlier this year. Rising unemployment figures are also leading consumers to cut back on spending on special events such as weddings, where pangasius fillets are often a popular menu item.

Pangasius Price in Indonesia

In early 2025, farmgate prices of pangasius in the central production region of East Java, Indonesia, increased slightly to IDR 15,000–15,500/kg (USD 0.92–0.95/kg). In Sumatra Island, where pangasius is mainly farmed locally, farmgate prices were higher at around IDR 18,500/kg (USD 1.15/kg), while at retail markets, live pangasius was sold for around IDR 30,000–35,000/kg (USD 1.85–2.15/kg).

Prospects

Vietnam's pangasius industry is expected to continue its positive trend, following an export record of over USD 2 billion in 2024. Furthermore, the Trump administration's new tariffs on Chinese tilapia are expected to benefit Vietnamese pangasius. Exporters are also expected to focus more on value-added products, an area with increased demand. Pangasius export prices rose during the peak season late last year and early this year.

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