Global fish economy: Fish consumption stagnates; capture production rebounds

FAO Globefish: 'Global Fisheries and Aquaculture Production to Rise in 2024 Amid Mixed Market Conditions'

WORLDWIDE
Monday, December 09, 2024, 07:00 (GMT + 9)

Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2024, reaching nearly 192 million tonnes, reports FAO-Globefish.

Wild catch volumes are expected to rebound by 1.1%, recovering from the challenges of 2023 caused by El Niño's impact on Peruvian anchoveta stocks. Peru has set its 2024 anchoveta quota at over five million tonnes—significantly higher than last year—bolstering marine ingredient availability for aquafeed production. However, global fish oil reserves remain constrained. Meanwhile, aquaculture output is anticipated to expand by 3.1%, driven by increased production in China, India, and Vietnam. Improved harvests of oil crops, grains, and marine ingredients are also likely to reduce feed costs in the coming year.

Global Trade Faces Value Decline Amid Stagnant Demand

Despite a modest 1.0% rise in global trade volumes, the value of fisheries trade is expected to decline by 1.2% in 2024. Major markets, including the European Union, China, the United States, and Japan, are forecasting reduced import values due to fragile consumer confidence and economic uncertainties. Inflationary pressures have eased, with central banks scaling back interest rates following the IMF’s so-called "great tightening," which marked the highest borrowing costs since the 1970s. However, aquatic food consumption remains subdued. In the first half of 2024, inflation-weary consumers disengaged from seafood, resulting in sluggish growth in consumption and trade. Market conditions were particularly challenging in countries such as Norway, Japan, Russia, the UK, Germany, and the United States.

Potential Trade Volatility Under New US Administration

Donald Trump’s recent election victory has raised questions about the future of fisheries trade. His campaign promises featured proposals for a 10% universal baseline tariff on all imports, 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, and a "reciprocal trade act" to match tariffs imposed on US exports. During Trump’s previous tenure (2017–2021), protectionist trade policies led to heightened tariffs and trade tensions, particularly with China, significantly disrupting seafood trade. If similar policies are implemented, global fisheries supply chains could face renewed volatility and uncertainty.

The most popular and demanding US seafood imports in 2023

Climate Challenges and Alaskan Fisheries Crisis

The fisheries sector continues to grapple with the consequences of recent climate events. Warmer ocean temperatures from El Niño in 2023 disrupted marine ecosystems, reducing global catches and inflating commodity prices. In Alaska, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported significant economic losses, with profitability in Alaskan fisheries halving between 2021 and 2023. Marine heatwaves, such as one in 2017, have severely impacted key species like cod and crab, jeopardizing the long-term sustainability of these fisheries. The cumulative losses to the Alaskan seafood industry are estimated at USD 1.8 billion, with an additional USD 4.3 billion lost in US GDP.

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