Vietnam exported USD 4.2 billion worth of seafood. (Photo: MARD)

Seafood export speculations for 2010 vary

VIET NAM
Friday, March 19, 2010, 23:40 (GMT + 9)

Vietnam’s potential seafood exports for this year have not been agreed on by ministries and independent forecasters.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) expects the country’s seafood export turnover to grow by 7.1 per cent compared to 2009 and reach USD 4.5 billion.

Although 2009 proved to be a thorny year for exporters due to the worldwide economic crisis, Vietnam still exported USD 4.2 billion worth of seafood, MARD pointed out. Compared to 2008, last year’s numbers show only a minimal drop in revenues of 6.2 per cent, or USD 276.6 million.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) also expressed hope in light of the global economy’s incipient recovery. The ministry speculates that the country’s seafood exports this year will reach USD 4.7 billion, a figure similar to MARD’s.

MOIT is basing its expectations on the economic revival of Vietnam’s three main export markets - the US, the European Union (EU) and Japan, reports VietNamNet.

At the same time, analysis and forecasting joint stock company Agromonitor claims that the ministries’ numbers are unfeasible and instead forecasts a growth rate of as much as 4 per cent only.

The international seafood market continues to face obstacles this year, in particular because the global economy is still recovering. Further, lower consumption and frugal spending will hinder the turnaround, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) believes.

International analysts say the US, the EU and Japan, are not doing as well as macroeconomic growth figures claim and are also unsustainable. Factors that will keep consumption and thus prices down are mainly Japan’s deflation and the US’s record-high unemployment levels.

Moreover, Vietnam is seeing augmented competition: India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have all been making burly efforts to diversify their seafood products and amplify productivity.

In the US, fish export numbers will sink deeper if Vietnam’s tra and basa are re-defined as catfish.

And in Japan, shrimp demand will be contingent on the country’s economic upturn. Already many expect shrimp exports to this country from Vietnam will not rise considerably in 2010.

As for the EU market, the illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing law (IUU) has made exports tremendously complicated because, per the IUU law, all seafood shipments to the union must now clearly mark the products’ origin to be allowed entry. Required data includes in which sea area the fish were caught and the names of the fishing boats that landed them.

Related articles:

- Seafood exporters face increasing difficulties
- Seafood exporters aim for US market
- Pangasius exports climb

By Natalia Real
[email protected]
www.seafood.media

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