Photo: VASEP/FIS

Vietnam's Seafood Exports in 2025: Opportunities and Challenges

VIET NAM
Monday, January 06, 2025, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

In 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports overcame numerous challenges, including raw material shortages, declining global demand, increasing competition, and heightened market barriers.

Despite these hurdles, the seafood industry achieved export revenues exceeding $10 billion. This figure, which excludes an additional $250 million from fishmeal exports—a key resource for the animal feed industry—demonstrates the industry's resilience and collective effort, as highlighted by Le Hang, Communications Director of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

Sector Highlights in 2024

• Shrimp Industry: With an export turnover of nearly $3.9 billion (up 15% from 2023), the shrimp industry weathered global inflation and intense competition from major producers like India, Ecuador, and Indonesia. By emphasizing value-added products and diversifying offerings (e.g., whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp, lobster, and sea shrimp), the industry maintained its competitiveness and steady growth.
• Pangasius Industry: Despite challenges such as rising shipping costs and slow recovery in import prices, the pangasius industry is projected to reach $2 billion in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year. Traditional markets, including the US, Brazil, Colombia, and CPTPP countries, have been pivotal in this recovery.
• Exploited Seafood: Exports of tuna, crab, squid, octopus, shellfish, and other marine fish surpassed $4 billion, despite difficulties related to raw material supplies and compliance with IUU (Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated) fishing regulations.

Photo: VASEP/Stockfile

Outlook for 2025

Vietnam’s seafood exports are expected to exceed $10 billion in 2025, with the possibility of reclaiming the $11 billion milestone achieved in 2022. However, the industry faces both promising opportunities and significant challenges.

Opportunities

Economic Recovery and Rising Demand

As major economies like the US, China, and the EU show signs of recovery, global seafood demand—especially from key markets such as the US, EU, Japan, and China—is expected to remain high. Emerging markets in Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East also offer growth potential for Vietnam’s high-quality seafood products.

Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)

Vietnam's participation in 16 signed FTAs and negotiations for three additional agreements provide critical advantages. Notably, the EVFTA (with the EU) and CPTPP reduce export taxes, enhance market access, and strengthen the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Photo: VASEP/Stockfile

Shift Toward Value-Added Products

The industry’s focus on developing value-added products aligns with global trends and enhances market competitiveness. Additionally, leveraging by-products from aquatic raw materials supports circular economy principles, increases value, and reduces environmental impact.

Favorable US Tax Policy

If the US increases tariffs on seafood imports from competitors like China, Vietnamese seafood—recognized for its quality and competitive pricing—could gain a stronger foothold in the US market. However, this opportunity also brings challenges such as higher export costs and the risk of anti-dumping or anti-subsidy measures.

Challenges

Climate Change

Rising sea levels, fluctuating temperatures, and water pollution pose significant risks to aquaculture, impacting raw material supplies and quality. These environmental changes may also heighten the prevalence of diseases, further complicating production.

Photo: VASEP/Stockfile

Intensified Global Competition

Major seafood producers such as India, Thailand, China, and Ecuador are expanding their output and improving quality. This intensifies competition for price and product standards, potentially affecting Vietnam’s market share.

Rising Production Costs

Increased costs for animal feed, fuel, and transportation may erode the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood in international markets.

Trade Barriers and Regulations

Trade protection measures, including anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties, along with stringent environmental and quality standards, could drive up costs and reduce export volumes. Additionally, the IUU yellow card and associated regulatory compliance present ongoing challenges for the industry.

Photo: VASEP/Stockfile

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, such as those between the US and China, may disrupt global supply chains, impacting raw material costs and export pricing. Such uncertainties could influence Vietnam’s seafood exports and broader economic performance.

Conclusion

As Vietnam’s seafood industry navigates 2025, it stands poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities while addressing persistent challenges. Strategic investments in sustainability, value-added products, and market diversification will be critical in ensuring the industry’s continued growth and its vital contribution to the national economy.

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