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MUNDIAL
Wednesday, March 19, 2025, 05:00 (GMT + 9)

Lower Chinese and US imports affected global trade in 2024

Global shrimp trade faced mixed trends in 2024. Ecuador maintained its leading position despite a slowdown in exports (particularly to China), while others in Asia and Latin America also struggled to keep their heads up in the export trade through market diversification. In Southeast Asia and the Far East, demand was strong over the 2025 Lunar New Year period. Overall, the industry anticipates slower growth in these next few months but remains optimistic about long-term recovery.

Supplies

In 2024, consumer demand for shrimp in China and the United States of America, the top two largest markets, was flat or fell below the previous year’s level. This, together with the low shrimp prices in the international trade throughout 2024, kept global production of farmed shrimp at around the 2023 level, according to preliminary production data.

Farmers in South and Southeast Asia (China, India, Malaysia and Viet Nam) have moved away from vannamei to black tiger production as market prices failed to improve for the former. Imports into China also dropped due to the increased supply of locally-produced vannamei from its greenhouse aquaculture sector which began operations in 2023. In Viet Nam, the harvest of farmed black tiger shrimp and vannamei in 2024 increased by three percent and six percent to reach 290 000 tonnes and 894 900 tonnes, yearon-year respectively.   

The export-oriented shrimp industry in Ecuador has suffered from issues such as irregular supply of electricity; low market prices; and lower import orders from China and the United States. The previous supply forecast of 1.5 million tonnes in 2024 did not materialize. 

Brazil produces between 210 000 to 220 000 tonnes of shrimp per year, a modest figure compared to Ecuador; most of this amount is marketed locally. 

Wild 'Patagonian red' shrimp from Argentina

International trade

The estimated global imports of shrimp during January–September 2024 amounted to 2.6 million tonnes, down by 3.4 percent over the same period in 2023. Looking at the whole year, the shrimp trade was characterized by reduced imports in China and the United States, whose combined share would likely have comprised half of the cumulative global shrimp imports. Meanwhile, although the annual report on the European Union shrimp trade has not yet been released, the available data on January–November 2024 suggests reduced imports in Spain, France, Denmark and Italy.

In the Asia-Pacific, shrimp imports increased in the non-producing countries namely, Japan, Hong Kong SAR, Republic of Korea and Singapore.

Exports

As of January–September 2024, Ecuador continued to lead the world export trade followed by India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, China and Argentina.

Pending the annual data for 2024, the January–November export figures showed marginally increased (+0.90 percent) sales year-on-year in Ecuador, at 1.12 million tonnes.  Viet Nam, Indonesia, China and Argentina also recorded higher exports; in contrast, exports from India declined by 6.69 percent year-on-year, at 670 000 tonnes.

Imports

The 2024 shrimp import data for most markets is yet to be published. However, the figures available on China and the United States indicate negative import trends in comparison with 2023. Nonetheless, annual imports in China stayed above one million tonnes in 2024, which was 6.54 percent or 71 000 tonnes less than the previous year. The decline in US imports at 763 414 tonnes (-3.17 percent or 25 000 tonnes lower, year-onyear) was caused by dull consumer demand that had contributed to high domestic inventories. Meanwhile, imports increased in Japan, Republic of Korea, Canada, Malaysia and Hong Kong SAR, mainly for local consumption. 

Imports during January–October 2024 in leading European Union markets (Spain, France and Kingdom of the Netherlands), and in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, increased against the same period in 2023.

China 

The seven-day Golden Week holiday period in October 2024 was an important time to gauge domestic demand for seafood amidst an economic downturn. Since mid-2024 to date, consumers in China appear to have reduced expenditure on luxury meals, with the exception being during the January–February 2025 Lunar New Year celebrations when shrimp remained an indispensable seafood for family reunion meals. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics in China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4 percent in January 2025, year-on-year. However, household spending was up, given the seasonal spending boost arising from the Lunar New Year celebrations as mentioned above.

Large sizes of sea-caught shrimp (sea tiger, flower, and banana shrimp) and medium-to-small sizes of farmed product (black tiger and vannamei) enjoyed strong demand and high prices (up by 20–30 percent) in the restaurant trade in January 2025, in comparison with December 2024. 

At the same time, domestic supply of shrimp has increased. Consequently, after steady growth for many years, imports into China weakened in 2024. For the whole of 2024, the decline in imports was 6.65 percent, from 1.0 million tonnes against 1.071 million tonnes in 2023.  

Among the top six sources, imports declined from all but Greenland (seacaught shrimp) and Viet Nam (farmed black tiger and vannamei). 

The United States 

Consumer demand for shrimp has been dull in the United States throughout 2024. This contributed to burdensome domestic inventories and reduced imports. 

During January–September 2024, the market imported 549 673 tonnes of shrimp, representing a 4.5 percent decline in comparison to the same period a year ago.

The weakening import trend persisted till the year-end. As mentioned previously, the 2024 import volume fell to 763 413 tonnes, which was 3.17 percent or 25 000 tonnes less than the same period a year ago. India, Ecuador and Indonesia were the top three suppliers in ranking but with reduced supplies.

Among the top five sources, imports fell from India, Ecuador, Indonesia and Thailand but increased from Viet Nam. The share of raw peeled shrimp in total imports was high at 48 percent (337 790 tonnes) with a 1.6 percent rise in supply.  The share of processed shrimp (HS 160521 & 160529) in total shrimp imports comprised 23 percent at 177 846 tonnes.

An important, though not unexpected, development happened on 1 February 2025, when the new Trump administration announced import tariffs on products from Canada, Mexico and China. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico have been paused for a month, the new ruling came into effect on 4 February in the case of China, where import tariffs have increased from 25 percent to 35 percent.  A significant impact on the global seafood sector can be expected as a result. 

European Union

 Since the end of the summer holiday season, the market has remained calm, including during the Christmas and New Year which is traditionally a high consumption period. As of January 2025, EU traders were holding sufficient stocks as imports during January–October 2024 increased by 2.6 percent year-on-year at 695 473 tonnes. Among the top buyers, imports increased marginally in Spain, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Germany and Portugal, but weakened in Belgium, Denmark, France and Italy.

Asia-Pacific 

Consumer demand for shrimp remains strong in Southeast Asia and the Far East, ranging from Japan to Thailand, particularly in the HORECA (hotel, restaurant and catering) sector. This trend started in December 2024 and continued till mid-February in celebration of the Lunar New Year from 29 January to 15 February 2025. Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan Province of China and Hong Kong SAR were the target markets for global shrimp exporters. 

Japan remains an attractive market for value-added shrimp.  During the first nine months of 2024, shrimp imports into Japan increased by 8.33 percent at 195 506 tonnes, of which 28 percent or 56 000 tonnes comprised high-value processed shrimp mostly supplied by China, Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam.   During the year-end festival period, demand for shrimp increased in the Japanese restaurant trade; the next high consumption season will be the Spring festival period in April–May.

Prices

During the Lunar New Year festivities, shrimp prices increased in the AsiaPacific catering and retail markets, but at a reasonable level. Consumers in China and other Oriental Asian markets were willing to pay a little extra for their preferred seafood to celebrate this auspicious period. 

Outlook

The season for farmed shrimp in Asia will begin from late February.  Production will be small in Indonesia and southern Thailand during March due to the Ramadan period. Moreover, ex-farm prices of shrimp are yet to increase to their preferred level.  The leading farmed shrimp producer, Ecuador, registered a decline in the average annual production growth from 14 percent to three percent in 2024 due to reduced demand, especially in China. Although the recovery of this market could have a positive influence, factors such as the recent Chinese stimulus and the increase in domestic seafood inventories will have an impact in the shorter term. Supplies from Mexico, another major exporter of shrimp to the United States, may be affected by the new import tariff of 25 percent which is anticipated to take effect in early March 2025. The United States imported 13 868 tonnes of shrimp from Mexico in 2024. Elsewhere in Latin America, Brazil stands out as a potentially stiff competitor to Ecuador in 2025, based on the notable 10 percent expansion of its industry in 2024. In Japan, demand for shrimp is expected to rise during the Spring festival from late March to May. The market is also expected to receive more valueadded supplies from China in view of the increased US import tariff on Chinese product. 

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