Vietnamese seafood exports are expected to reach $9 billion to $9.2 billion by 2025

Vietnamese seafood exports accelerate ahead of US tariffs

VIET NAM
Tuesday, August 05, 2025, 05:40 (GMT + 9)

The value of Vietnam's seafood exports grew by 17.2% in the first 7 months of 2025, despite challenges in the US market. Companies are rushing to ship orders before new reciprocal tariffs take effect, while China is consolidating its position as a key growth market.

The value of Vietnam's seafood exports reached $971 million in July 2025, up 6.1% over the same period last year. In the first seven months of the year, the total export value soared to $6.22 billion, representing a strong growth of 17.2%. However, behind this result is a race against time by many companies to send their orders to the United States before August 1, 2025, the deadline for a new reciprocal tax, as reported by Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

Main markets: US and China, opposite poles

The US market recorded an export value of $145.8 million in July, a decline of 19.6% compared to the same period. This is mainly due to the impact of the reciprocal tax policy that the US plans to apply from August 2025, with a rate of up to 20%, in addition to the antidumping duty (CBPG) and countervailing duty. This situation has caused disruptions in exports and a decrease in orders. Market confidence was shaken by the provisional CBPG tax on shrimp for the POR19 period, announced in early June, which reached 33.29% for many companies.

IQF frozen Japanese-style shrimp tempura with panko

In contrast, the Chinese market recorded remarkable growth: July reached $221.5 million (+31.7%), and the first seven months reached $1.33 billion (+42.6%). China increased its imports again, especially of shrimp and squid, which has given Vietnamese companies the opportunity to accelerate their exports before the US tariffs take effect. This growth is also the result of the flexibility of companies, which have proactively redirected their efforts toward growing markets and have taken advantage of trade agreements such as RCEP and CPTPP to benefit from tariff incentives.

In addition to the US and China, the markets of Japan, the EU, Korea, and ASEAN also grew positively, which shows that the shift in global consumption benefits Vietnamese seafood, especially in a context of reasonable prices and abundant supply.

Click on the image to enlarge it | Source: VASEP

Shrimp, pangasius, and tuna: under the impact of tax policy

Shrimp continues to be the main export product, with $2.49 billion in the first seven months (+23.6%). However, the US market, which accounts for a large part of exports, is being stifled by tax policies, which is causing companies to show signs of slowing down orders. Compared to competitors like Ecuador (with a tax rate of only 15%) or Indonesia and the Philippines (19%), Vietnamese shrimp is gradually losing its advantage if the 20% reciprocal tax is implemented.

Pangasius recorded an export volume of $1.22 billion in seven months, up 11.1%. The positive point is that 8 large companies, such as Vinh Hoan, were granted a 0% antidumping duty according to the POR20 results, which helped restore confidence in the US market. However, if the new reciprocal tax is applied, pangasius will also be heavily affected in terms of costs and prices.

Frozen IQF pangasius (basa) fillets

In contrast, tuna faced difficulties with a slight decrease of 2.8% in seven months, to $542 million, and a sharp drop of almost 19% in July. The main reason is due to inadequate national regulations, such as Decree 37, which prohibits the mixing of domestic and imported raw materials.

Forecast and outlook

For the second half of the year, the outlook for Vietnam's seafood exports is expected to be "as challenging as it is promising." The challenges come from the US's 20% reciprocal tax, the risk of losing the shrimp market, and restrictions on tuna, along with geopolitical instability. However, opportunities remain wide open. The strong recovery of the Chinese, ASEAN, and Japanese markets, along with the EU's signal to remove technical barriers, opens up a space for growth for highly processed product lines. Trade agreements such as EVFTA, CPTPP, and UKVFTA continue to create superior tariff advantages compared to rival countries..

Frozen tuna portions for sushi and sashimi

It is forecast that in 2025, seafood exports could reach between $9 billion and $9.2 billion. However, to achieve this goal, companies must continue to proactively source raw materials, improve quality, invest in processing technology, and diversify markets, especially niche markets in CPTPP, ASEAN, and Asia.

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