Photo: FAO/FIS

Globefish report on the global pangasius market

WORLDWIDE
Thursday, July 18, 2024, 18:10 (GMT + 9)

The following is an excerpt from an article published by Globefish:

Firm consumption trend in smaller markets

Growth in pangasius production has been positive in Viet Nam and Indonesia. China remains the biggest global market but new import taxes are likely to affect future purchases. Domestic demand in Indonesia is strong.

Production

The world’s biggest producer of pangasius, Viet Nam, announced a total output of 1.6 million tonnes in 2023, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The Ministry envisages a further increase to 1.7 million tonnes in 2024. Meanwhile, some partnerships are being fostered between pangasius producers and manufacturers of insectbased ingredients in a move towards creating feeds with low environmental impacts. Industry sources also cite a looming competition with Alaska pollock, which costs less compared with pangasius.

Elsewhere, Indonesian pangasius production reached its highest level in 2023, with 431,381 tonnes valued at around IDR 8 289 billion (USD 518,063), according to the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF, 2024).

Photo: courtesy  Thu Hien/VNA

Comparatively, the production in 2021 and 2022 was far lower, at 332,023 tonnes and 340,444 tonnes, respectively. This positive trend was realized despite the challenges faced by the industry such as increasing production costs, and a weakening market in 2022 up to the beginning of 2023.

Most of the Indonesian production is sold in the domestic markets through traditional outlets. Sales to the hotels, restaurants and catering (HORECA) sector are mainly in live form while those to the retail sector are in the form of frozen fillets. Demand from the HORECA sector in particular has been growing rapidly; and in almost all wedding receptions and functions, breaded pangasius fillets are served. In order to maintain quality control, the government has issued a national standard for pangasius fillets with a maximum 20 percent glaze level. In addition, in a move to safeguard consumers against misleading practices, the MMAF has urged pangasius fillet producers to include the net weight on product labels.

Photo: courtesy Cong Han

Trade and markets

General

The global trade figures for pangasius in 2023 reflected a depressed market overall. In that year, approximately 563 000 tonnes of frozen pangasius entered the international trade, down by 25 percent from 2022. Frozen fillets continued to represent the lion’s share of trade, with an 84 percent share of total imports despite experiencing a 29 percent decline from 2022. Whole frozen fish which makes up 15 percent of the trade, was up by three percent year-on-year.

These increased imports of whole frozen whole fish were seen in China (+9 percent; 56,340 tonnes), Colombia (+10 percent; 15,340 tonnes), Uzbekistan (+82 percent; 2,900 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (+89 percent; 1,300 tonnes), Qatar (+54 percent; 1,140 tonnes), Republic of Korea (+5 percent; 1 120 tonnes) and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (+48 percent; 1,020 tonnes).

Frozen fillet imports increased in Brazil (+15 percent; 32,620 tonnes), the Philippines (+10 percent; 23 180 tonnes), Singapore (+10 percent; 16,280 tonnes), the United Kingdom (+10 percent; 14,680 tonnes) and Germany (+45 percent; 9,290 tonnes).

China remains the biggest market for both whole frozen fish and fillets, taking a 29 percent share of the total frozen pangasius import volume, followed by the United States with 15 percent and Brazil with six percent. Increased imports of both forms into smaller markets were noted.

China

Imports into China are expected to continue upwards, triggered by the uptick in the Lunar New Year demand which saw stockpiling of products towards the end of 2023. In December 2023, China imported a total of 15 599 tonnes of frozen pangasius from Viet Nam, 87 percent more than the month of September 2023. Average import prices strengthened by seven percent in December 2023 to USD 2.01 per kg. However, taking the whole year into account, the total imports of frozen pangasius into China added up to 162,630 tonnes, down by 35 percent from 2022. Furthermore, new Chinese tariffs on pangasius imports from Viet Nam will likely see some slowdown in imports in the period ahead.

United States of America

Imports into the United States increased by 18 percent from September to November 2023 but then declined in December, representing an overall drop of 13 percent at 6,512 tonnes in the last four months of the year. In the whole year, US imports of frozen pangasius were 91,523 tonnes, with Viet Nam accounting for 91 percent of this volume and the remaining nine percent from Thailand and China.

Viet Nam

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors (VASEP) announced that total exports in2023 reached USD 1.8 billion, 25 percent lower than the year before. This decline was attributed to the prevailing depressed demand in the major markets. Accordingly, the recent 1 August 2021–31 July 2022 review by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) for frozen tra fish (pangasius) fillet exports from Viet Nam was greeted with relief, with some companies being entitled to zero taxes and others being subject to a lower anti-dumping tax rate of USD 0.18 per kg. This development is expected to encourage higher exports in the coming months.

Europe

The European Union imported 65,776 tonnes of frozen pangasius comprising 91 percent frozen fillets and nine percent whole fish. Approximately 85 percent of the imports originated from Viet Nam. The United Kingdom, on the other hand, is the largest single importer in Europe for frozen pangasius, recording steady imports and increases. In 2023, a total of 15,697 tonnes of frozen pangasius from Viet Nam was imported into the United Kingdom, 8.76 percent more than the year before. Average import prices declined by 6.06 percent to USD 3.88 per kg in 2023 from the level in 2022.

Asia

In Asia, China took a 56 percent share of global frozen pangasius imports with 162,630 tonnes, followed by Thailand (11 percent; 31,300 tonnes), the Philippines (10 percent; 23,810 tonnes) and Singapore (six percent; 16,650 tonnes). Consumption of pangasius fillets in this region has increased significantly since the product was introduced nearly a decade ago. The species is popularly marketed as “dory” in most Southeast Asian countries.

In Malaysia, it is locally known as “ikan patin” and is popularly consumed as whole fish, steamed or cooked with fermented durian (a tropical fruit) in a spicy broth. Of interest to note also is that a total 2,952 tonnes of frozen pangasius was imported by Uzbekistan in 2023, representing a 76 percent increase as compared to 2022.

Latin America

A total of 89,813 tonnes of frozen pangasius was imported into Latin America in 2023, of which Brazil, Mexico and Colombia together accounted for 58 percent. Brazil, Honduras and Argentina are the only countries in the region that experienced positive growth in 2023, rising by 14.88 percent to 32,633 tonnes, 17.85 percent to 1,085 tonnes and 4.17 percent to 250 tonnes, respectively. With its strong domestic demand, Brazil remains the biggest importer of pangasius in Latin America; and is also the third largest market for frozen Vietnamese pangasius in terms of volume, behind China and the United States.

Prices

In the fourth quarter of 2023, ex-farm prices of pangasius in Viet Nam weakened further from VND 26,770 per kg (USD 1.06) to VND 25,055 per kg (USD 0.99) in December. However, prices spiked to VND 28,660 per kg (USD 1.13) from January 2024 due to the Lunar New Year demand.

Elsewhere, in Bangladesh, fresh pangasius in Dhaka (at the Kawran intermediary wholesale market for small retailers) is being sold at USD 1.80-2.30. Supplies come from the northern city of Mymensingh while supermarkets get their supplies from contract producers. During the cooler season (November to February), live pangasius which is guaranteed to be chemical-free, is also supplied from Mymensingh to retail buyers in Barisal.

In Indonesia, ex-farm prices have been stable at around IDR 16,000–17,000 per kg (USD 0.98–1.04 per kg) since the end of 2023. While traditional markets for live pangasius are mainly close to the main production centers in Sumatra and Kalimantan, new outlets in the HORECA and retail sectors which are absorbing mainly frozen fillets, are concentrated in Java.

Outlook

Despite signs of improved demand inearly 2024 from China (the largest market for Vietnamese pangasius), there may be some slowdown in imports due to the recently imposed import tariffs by the Chinese authorities. Nevertheless, demand will continue to remain firm in other smaller global markets, including Indonesia and Bangladesh, where a significant amount of production is being consumed domestically.

Source: Globefish

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