Photo: FAO Globefish /FIS

FAO-Globefish - Groundfish Market Overview (cod, hake, pollock...)

WORLDWIDE
Thursday, May 22, 2025, 06:00 (GMT + 9)

Cod and hake catches going down 

In 2024, total cod and hake catches were lower than in previous years as quota reductions are impacting harvest volumes all over the world. These reductions contributed to price growth in all markets, pricing especially cod out of the normal consumer market. In contrast, Alaska pollock reported higher catch levels with lower prices and continued to be the main groundfish species caught worldwide.  Hake production in 2025 is facing serious challenges, particularly in the Western Mediterranean, where stocks are critically low due to decades of overfishing. Scientific assessments indicate that hake populations in this region are below 10 percent of sustainable levels, and fishing rates are nearly double the limits needed for stock recovery. Despite these concerns, Italy, France and Spain have successfully negotiated a oneyear moratorium on new fishing restrictions, delaying urgent conservation measures. This decision has sparked debate among environmental groups and policymakers, as experts warn that without immediate action, hake could disappear from the region in the coming years. 

Supplies 

In South America, Argentina’s 2025 hake fishing quota is set at 350 000 tonnes, the same as in previous years, reflecting its commitment to sustainable fishing practices. Last year, the total hake catch by the country was in line with this catch quota. Uruguay, on the other hand, has not yet finalized its hake fishing quota for 2025. The country is facing challenges in its fishing industry, including high operational costs and regulatory issues, which may influence the final decision.

Elsewhere, Namibia has set a total allowable catch (TAC) of 140 000 tonnes for hake for the October 2024 to September 2025 fishing period, down from the previous season’s quota of 154 000 tonnes. A more positive outlook was seen in the case of South Africa, which increased its 2025 hake TAC by  4 percent. This adjustment is part of efforts to meet rising global demand, particularly from markets in the European Union and North America.

Cod catches for 2025 will be far lower than last year across multiple regions due to concerns about stock sustainability. In the Barents Sea, the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fishery Commission recommended a  31 percent reduction, bringing the quota down to 311 587 tonnes, the lowest in over two decades. This reduction is aimed at preventing further stock decline, as cod recruitment has been lower than expected in recent years. Experts predict that cod stocks will take several years to recover, with improvements expected around 2028. In the North Sea, fishers are facing a 20 percent cut in Northern Shelf cod compared to 2024, with a TAC of 25 000 tonnes this year. In the Flemish Cap (NAFO Division 3M), scientific projections indicate that spawning stock biomass (SSB) will increase under most fishing scenarios, but recruitment levels remain low.

For other groundfish, the outlook is far better. The Alaska pollock catch in 2025 is expected to be higher than initially projected due to revised quotas. The TAC in the Gulf of Alaska has been increased from 163 494 tonnes to 186 245 tonnes. This adjustment was made to align with the latest stock assessments and to ensure sustainable fishing practices. In 2024, the Russian Federation harvested over 1.6 million tonnes of Alaska pollock, which comprised approximately 70 percent of its TAC; this marked an  11 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Trade

World trade in groundfish was reduced in 2024, as both cod and Alaska pollock saw declines in export volumes. This was caused by lower production and quotas for cod, and by trade embargoes on Alaska pollock from the Russian Federation.

The Russian Federation exported about 800 000 tonnes of Alaska pollock in 2024, almost 40 000 tonnes less than in the same period of 2023 and 200 000 tonnes less than in 2022. Most of these exports were directed to China, for reprocessing.

Chinese imports of frozen Alaska pollock were 575 000 tonnes in 2024, some 7 percent less than in 2023. This was mainly due to reduced shipments from the Russian Federation, which nevertheless remained the biggest supplier, accounting for over 90 percent of the total imports of the species. Meanwhile, the United States of America managed to send 46 600 tonnes to the Chinese market, 53 percent more than in 2023. As exports from China stayed stable at 194 000 tonnes, the reduction in imports meant less products for the domestic market.

German imports of frozen Alaska pollock fillets fell in 2024 to 112 000 tonnes, 25 percent less than in 2023. This was exclusively due to lower imports from China, which dropped from 90 000 tonnes to 37 000 tonnes. The United States became the main supplier with 40 000 tonnes, almost double the 2023 exports.

China remains a major importer of frozen cod. In 2024, total imports were 144 000 tonnes, some 20 000 tonnes more than in 2023, but still 10 000 tonnes short of the 2022 figure. The main supplier was the Russian Federation, with 94 200 tonnes in 2024, thus accounting for more than twothirds of Chinese cod imports. The United States was a distant second. Most of the cod imported into China goes to the fillet processing industry. The total exports of frozen cod fillets from China in 2024 were 97 000 tonnes, somewhat higher than the 2023 imports of 79 000 tonnes, but still below the 2022 figure of 103 000 tonnes. The fillet exports thus mirrored the raw material imports.

The downward trend of Norwegian whole cod exports continued in 2024. Only 40 000 tonnes of this product were exported in 2024, 10 000 tonnes lower than in 2023 and 27 000 tonnes less than in 2022. The decline was due to reduced buying interest from China, where the focus had shifted from Norwegian cod to the less expensive cod from the Russian Federation.

Prices

Due to declining stocks, the wholesale price of hake is expected to rise by 15–20 percent, making it a premium product in European markets. Restaurants and retailers may shift to alternative whitefish, such as pangasius or pollock, to manage costs.

Prices of groundfish continue to increase for the higher value species such as cod and haddock. In March 2025, cod prices in Norway were NOK 131.31 (USD 13.00) per kg for frozen fillets and NOK 152.43 (USD 15.00) per kg for fresh fillets. These prices compare to NOK 86.41 (USD 8.12) per kg and NOK 136.6 (USD 13.10) per kg in March 2024 respectively. 

Fresh cod, CIF Italy, was selling at USD 11.40 per kg in April 2025, which compares to USD 8.26 per kg just one year earlier. Clipfish and stockfish report sky-high prices, with consumers looking for alternative products.

Outlook 

The Russian pollock industry has been growing due to government subsidies and new processing initiatives, making it a strong competitor in the global seafood market. For 2025, projections indicate that the Russian Federation will maintain a high production level for Alaska pollock, with some expansion over the already high 2024 catch level. At the same time, the Russian fishing industry is interested in developing the domestic market in order to be independent from the international market, and thus avoid the impact of sanctions and embargoes.

Southern European countries like Spain and Portugal, which are major consumers of hake, may see reduced imports, affecting traditional seafood supply chains. This could lead to increased reliance on South American hake sources, although hake from Argentina and Uruguay have also faced reduced quantities in recent years due to currently lower hake populations.

Trade in groundfish is likely to shrink again in 2025, especially with regard to the volume, while value is expected to go up due to higher prices. Much depends on how the European Union views the embargo on Russian Alaska pollock and whether it will include fillets processed in China. Trade patterns during the last quarter of 2024 would indicate an interest by European buyers to avoid Chinese fillet products, being mainly of Russian origin. 

Source: FAO/Globefish

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