The world's fourth-largest shrimp exporter has made efforts to stabilize prices and improve its product structure

Indonesian Shrimp Exports Face Volatility but Show Resilience in 2025

INDONESIA
Wednesday, January 21, 2026, 07:00 (GMT + 9)

Radiation-related trade disruptions, shifting product structures, and market diversification reshape Indonesia’s shrimp industry in the first 11 months of the year.

In the first 11 months of 2025, the Indonesian shrimp industry went through one of its most volatile periods in recent years. While total export volume declined slightly, export value continued to rise, underscoring the efforts of the world’s fourth-largest shrimp exporter to stabilize prices and upgrade its product mix.

A key turning point came in the third quarter of 2025, when the Cesium-137 (Cs-137) radiation incident triggered tighter import controls, particularly from the United States, causing a sharp but temporary disruption. However, Indonesia’s swift response and market adjustments highlighted its adaptability and restructuring capacity, as noted by Ms.Kim Thu, Shrimp Market Expert at the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

Export volume down, value up

According to data from Shrimp Insights, from January to November 2025, Indonesia exported 177,401 tons of shrimp, down 4% year-on-year, while export value reached US$1.55 billion, up 6%. This trend mirrors the broader global shrimp market in 2025, where production pressure and tighter supply supported higher average selling prices, especially for processed products.

Photo: Stockfile/FIS

October shock, November rebound

Monthly data reveal sharp fluctuations. After relative stability in the first half of the year, exports plunged in October 2025, with volume dropping to just 8,233 tons, a steep 59% decline year-on-year. Export value also fell 55% to US$76 million, largely due to the US tightening radiation-related import inspections.

Photo: Stockfile/FIS

By contrast, November 2025 saw a notable recovery. Export volume rebounded to 14,967 tons, nearly double October’s level, though still 19% lower than the same month last year. Export value reached US$141 million, down only 7% year-on-year, indicating that shipments to non-US markets resumed more quickly.

Product structure: processed shrimp shines

A closer look at product categories highlights diverging trends. Raw whiteleg shrimp remained the largest export segment, totaling 85,224 tons in 11 months, nearly flat compared with last year (-1%). This confirms Indonesia’s ongoing role as a major supplier of raw shrimp to global markets.

The standout performer was cooked and marinated shrimp, with cumulative exports of 49,860 tons, up 7%, despite the October downturn. Growth in this value-added segment was especially strong in Japan and the European Union (EU), validating Indonesia’s strategy to move up the value chain.

In contrast, breaded shrimp exports fell sharply to 7,610 tons, down 19%, reflecting changing consumer preferences and intense competition. Raw black tiger shrimp exports also declined by 16%, signaling a diminishing role within Indonesia’s overall export structure.

Markets: US dominance remains a risk

The United States remained Indonesia’s largest shrimp market but also its most vulnerable. In the first 11 months, exports to the US totaled 108,635 tons, down 12%, with particularly severe contractions in October and November. The episode underscored how heavy reliance on a single market exposes exporters to technical barriers and unexpected regulatory shocks.

Meanwhile, Japan continued to provide stability, importing 30,620 tons, up 6%. The EU emerged as the brightest spot, with imports surging 47% to 9,641 tons. China also recorded double-digit growth of 16%, albeit from a smaller base. These figures demonstrate that Indonesia’s market diversification efforts are gaining traction.

Competitive signals and outlook

Indonesia’s shrimp export performance in the first 11 months of 2025 shows how a single food safety incident can temporarily disrupt trade flows in key markets. At the same time, the rapid rebound in November highlights the importance of robust control, certification, and dialogue mechanisms in restoring buyer confidence.

Photo: Stockfile/FIS

From a structural perspective, sustained growth in cooked and marinated shrimp acted as a crucial value buffer, helping offset volatility in raw shrimp exports. From a market standpoint, declining shipments to the US alongside rising exports to the EU, Japan, and China confirm the early success of diversification strategies.

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s recovery momentum suggests that shrimp supply—particularly in the processed segment—could strengthen again in 2026. For Vietnamese shrimp enterprises, this sends a clear signal to closely monitor Indonesia’s developments and proactively adjust market focus, product structure, and pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness in the evolving global shrimp market.

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