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5 Key Trends to Watch: The Future of Pelagic Fish in 2026 (mackerel, herring...)

NORWAY
Tuesday, January 13, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

The 2025 pelagic season has officially concluded, leaving a complex legacy for the industry.

As we look toward 2026, the sector faces a landscape defined by record-breaking prices and shifting biological realities.

Source: Norwegian Seafood Council

1. Historic Lows in Volume, Historic Highs in Price

2025 marked the fourth consecutive year of declining export volumes for pelagic fish, reaching their lowest levels since 1992. However, record-high average prices have acted as a financial buffer. Despite a 30% drop in total volume, the export value reached NOK 13.1 billion, falling only slightly short of the record set in 2024.

Source: Norwegian Seafood Council

2. Mackerel: A Looming Market Test

Mackerel is the industry’s most vital species, and its 2025 performance was unprecedented. Export volumes plummeted by 34% to the lowest point since 2009, while average prices surged by over 50%. Because these costs have not yet been fully passed on to the end consumer, 2026 will be the year where the market's ability to absorb these prices is truly tested.

Norwegian mackerel packing in Korea

3. Resilience in Global Demand

Despite the price surge, demand for Norwegian fish remains robust, with significant shifts in global trade:

• South Korea: Emerged as the largest direct export market for mackerel for the first time in 2025.

• Vietnam: Overtook China as the primary processing hub for Norwegian mackerel.

• USA: The only major market to see volume growth in 2025, driven by the supply of large fish.

• Japan: Maintains its position as a stronghold for high-quality pelagic exports.

Reprocessing Norwegian mackerel in Vietnam

4. Biological Ceilings and Stock Health

The outlook for 2026 is heavily constrained by thinning fish stocks. Mackerel populations have dipped below critical levels, while North Sea herring and blue whiting have seen sharp declines.

• The Bright Spot: NVG herring is the exception, with a forecasted quota increase of 33%.

• The Challenge: While a new quadripartite agreement on mackerel is a positive step, total catches still significantly exceed scientific recommendations.

5. Herring: The Alternative for Market Growth

2025 was a record value year for herring, aided by improved market access to the EU for marinated products. In 2026, the increased volume of NVG herring provides a chance to revitalize consumption in Germany, the industry's most important market. Furthermore, as mackerel prices soar, many markets are expected to turn to herring as a more affordable alternative raw material.

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