Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council

Global Supply Crunch Drives Norwegian Cod Prices to Record Highs Amid Dwindling Quotas

NORWAY
Monday, January 12, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Market resilience tested as falling volumes are offset by soaring values, while farmed cod reaches a historic share of the export sector.

The international whitefish market is grappling with a significant shift in supply dynamics as Norway, the world’s premier cod exporter, reported a year of "volume decrease but value increase." Despite a tightening of quotas that pushed wild catch landings to their lowest levels in over a decade, the total export value for fresh cod reached $266 million (NOK 2.8 billion) in 2025.

Source: Norwegian Seafood Council

According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, while the volume of fresh cod exports fell by 9 per cent, the total value rose by $25.6 million (NOK 270 million), or 11 per cent, compared to 2024.

The Battle for Raw Materials

The decline in wild-caught fish has triggered a "tough battle" for resources. Eivind Hestvik Brækkan, seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council, noted that while landings of fresh wild cod fell by 13 per cent, export volumes plummeted by 25 per cent to 21,211 tonnes.

"A large Norwegian processing industry needs fresh raw materials for production," Brækkan explained. "This resulted in a larger proportion of fresh wild cod going to domestic production of salted fish, clipfish, and stockfish rather than being exported fresh."

Key highlights of the 2025 market shift include:

• Farmed Cod Surge: Farmed cod now accounts for a record 38 per cent of the fresh export value, up from 28 per cent in 2024. Volume rose 30 per cent to 15,493 tonnes, valued at $104.5 million (NOK 1.1 billion).

• Spanish Market Strain: Spain, the largest consumer market for direct exports, saw volumes drop 29 per cent to 3,243 tonnes.

• Frozen Cod Trends: Exports reached 37,462 tonnes worth $304 million (NOK 3.2 billion). The UK remained the largest market for frozen cod for the third consecutive year, underscoring the enduring popularity of fish and chips despite rising costs.

Source: Norwegian Seafood Council

Geopolitical Shifts and the Rise of Vietnam

The frozen cod sector saw a notable shift in processing hubs. Vietnam recorded a 38 per cent increase in export value, totaling $58.5 million (NOK 615 million). This growth is largely attributed to US trade policy.

"The main reason for Vietnam's strong performance is the US tariffs against China," said Brækkan. "However, with US tariffs on frozen cod fillets from China reduced to 20 per cent as of November 1, China could come back stronger this year."

Norwegian cod in Vietnam. Photo: Đầu Cá Tuyết Na Uy /Facebook

Portugal: The Global Cod Powerhouse

Portugal continues to dominate the dried and salted sectors, consuming a staggering 39 per cent of all Norwegian cod exports.

• Clipfish: Export values hit a record $636.5 million (NOK 6.7 billion). Portugal took 81 per cent of all cod clipfish.

• Salted Fish: Total export value reached $237.5 million (NOK 2.5 billion), with Portugal accounting for 94 per cent of the volume.

Gudfinna Traustadottir, the Council’s envoy to Portugal, noted that despite a 14 per cent price hike, Portuguese consumption fell by only 3 per cent. "This resilience underlines the product's strong position," she said, though she warned that record prices may impact the market more severely in 2026.

Historic Lows for Stockfish

The traditional stockfish market saw its fourth consecutive year of record-low volumes, falling to 2,893 tonnes. Prices for cod stockfish exceeded $38 (NOK 400) per kg for the first time in the final quarter of 2025, as Italy—the primary market—struggled with the combination of low quotas and record-high costs.

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