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Analysts forecast an approximate 5% decline in global whitefish production in 2026. Photo: Stockfile/FIS
Chinese Demand Impacts Russian Pollock Price, Reaching a 10-Year High Amid Supply Shortage and Global Whitefish Scarcity
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Tuesday, December 09, 2025, 00:10 (GMT + 9)
Short-Term Scarcity and Chinese Processing Delays Fuel Record Spot Market Increases
The Russian pollock market is experiencing a significant surge, with the spot price for H&G (headless and gutted) raw material hitting a 10-year high. In Week 48 (November 24–30, 2025), the price for Russian pollock H&G was recorded at USD 1,720/ton, marking a USD 10/ton increase from the previous week. This upward pressure intensified at the end of Week 47, where some transactions briefly rose USD 50/ton above the reference price, as reported by VASEP using Synthesis sources.
Key Drivers of the Price Spike
Several immediate and structural factors are contributing to the current high prices:
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Low Inventories: Suppliers attribute the immediate price hike primarily to low inventories and the urgent need for certain buyers to replenish raw materials in the short term, leading to market fluctuations.
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Chinese Processing Slowdown: Limited supply from Chinese factories is slowing the production of re-frozen fillets. This bottleneck is due to pre-holiday preparations ahead of the long Lunar New Year holiday (February 17–March 3, 2026), which is helping to sustain high raw material prices. China remains a critical processing hub for Russian pollock, accounting for approximately 60% of Russian exports, according to industry analysis.
Photo: courtesy k.sina.cn
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Global Whitefish Scarcity: The pollock market is also reacting to a broader tightening in the global whitefish supply. Analysts forecast an approximate 5% decline in global whitefish production in 2026, with pollock and cod facing severe reductions. Notably, the US quota for Alaskan pollock is set to be reduced by 100,000 tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes in 2026. In contrast, Russia's quota is projected to remain stable at 2.06 million tonnes, solidifying its dominant position with a 57% share of global supply.
Focus Shifts to Long-Term Contracts
Market attention is now primarily focused on long-term contract price negotiations for the first quarter of 2026.
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 Expected Price Range: Many estimates suggest the long-term price range will settle between USD 1,400–1,500/mt, a figure that heavily depends on the final demand for re-frozen fillets.
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Threshold Forecast: Some assessments indicate that if underlying market demand remains stable, raw material prices could remain above the USD 1,500/mt threshold through the first part of the year.
Outlook for Supply and Downstream Markets
The market anticipates potential relief in supply:
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Seasonal Supply Boost: H&G supplies are expected to increase again starting in January 2026, coinciding with the start of the crucial Okhotsk Sea fishing season. This seasonal influx of catch is expected to ease some of the immediate price pressure on the market.
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Downstream Pricing: Final prices for fillets in Europe and the frozen markets in Russia and the US are expected to be finalized during the first quarter of 2026, but they remain contingent upon the developing trends in the raw material market. The price gap between Russian and US fillets has already been narrowing due to spot shortages and policy changes, such as the 13.7% EU import tariff on Russian fillets.
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