Unprecedented Price Growth: From $1.86 to $4.65 per kg

Significant Surge in Norwegian Mackerel Export Values

NORWAY
Thursday, January 08, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Norway solidified its position as a global seafood powerhouse in 2025, setting a new all-time export value record for mackerel.

Despite a staggering 34% drop in volume, the total export value reached $790.5 million (NOK 8.5 billion), an increase of $16.3 million (NOK 176 million) over the previous year.

The surge was fueled by an unprecedented spike in prices, driven by tightening quotas and fierce global competition for raw materials. South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan emerged as the three largest markets for the year.

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Unprecedented Price Growth: From $1.86 to $4.65 per kg

The price trajectory for mackerel in 2025 was described as "formidable" by industry experts. For nearly two decades, prices remained relatively stable, but recent years have seen a total transformation of the market.

Jan Eirik Johnsen, Head of Pelagic Species at the Norwegian Seafood Council, noted:

“There was a formidable increase in the price of mackerel in 2025, which was due to lower quotas in 2025, but also expectations of significantly lower quotas in 2026. The low quotas lead to an intense battle for the raw material in the Norwegian industry, and this drives prices upwards."

The speed of the price increase has caught many by surprise. Johnsen added:

“It took 19 years, from 2004 to 2023, for the price of whole frozen mackerel under 600 grams, which is by far the largest product, to pass from NOK 10 ($0.93) per kg until it passed NOK 20 ($1.86) per kg. In 2025, the price passed NOK 30 ($2.79), 40 ($3.72) and 50 ($4.65) per kg."

Despite these costs, Johnsen explained that the most solvent markets continue to buy because many players deal exclusively in mackerel and must take the risk of selling it forward to maintain their market position.

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The Rise of Fillets and the "Vietnam Route"

While whole fish volume fell, the export of mackerel fillets saw a surprising boom. Volume jumped 53% to 12,500 tonnes, while the value doubled to $38.4 million (NOK 413 million). Most of this growth is attributed to the European canning industry.

However, the traditional powerhouse, Japan, faced a difficult year. Taking 40% of Norway's mackerel (down from 42% in 2024), it was one of the few markets where both volume and value declined.

Johan Kvalheim, the Norwegian Seafood Council's envoy to Japan, highlighted the mounting pressure:

“The high mackerel prices are putting pressure on the entire value chain, and we're already seeing bankruptcies before the fish are in the shops. Producers in Japan are now clearly falling behind in the competition for raw materials, not only because of the price level, but also because the tariffs make direct imports more expensive."

Currently, whole mackerel from Norway faces a 7% tariff and fillets 10% in Japan. In contrast, exports to Vietnam are duty-free, and fillets processed there enter Japan with zero duty.

“As a result, increasing volumes are being channelled via Vietnam in particular, but also China, to keep costs down. We're very excited to see how consumers will react to the prices of seasonal mackerel when it hits the shelves in the future, in a situation where households are already under financial pressure," Kvalheim said.

Market Outlook for 2026

The year ended with a cooling trend in December. Norway exported 9,600 tonnes worth $46.1 million (NOK 496 million), a 10% value decrease and a 49% volume drop compared to December 2024.

Looking ahead, Johnsen warned that the market tightness is unlikely to ease:

"The price increase we saw for mackerel in 2025 is unprecedented. The full impact of this price increase and volume reduction have not yet reached the markets but has already created challenges. However, this trend will continue in 2026, as the mackerel quota will be significantly lower compared to 2025."

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