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Photo: Stockfile/FIS
Global Whitefish Market Enters 'Price Shortage' Era as Cod Quotas Plummet 22% and Pollock Supply Dips
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Monday, October 27, 2025, 05:20 (GMT + 9)
Groundfish Forum in Tokyo Signals 5% Production Decline in 2026, Driving Record Prices and Geopolitical Tensions in North Atlantic and North Pacific Fisheries.
The global whitefish market is bracing for an unprecedented era of "price shortages," according to an alarming signal issued at the annual Groundfish Forum held in Tokyo, Japan, on October 24, 2025. Analysts forecast an approximate 5% decline in global whitefish production in 2026, with cod and pollock —the two primary species— facing particularly severe reductions. This downturn is expected to trigger sustained price increases for raw material in key production regions, including the North Atlantic and North Pacific.
Cod Hits Ten-Year Low, Prices Soar Past $10,000
The Atlantic cod sector is at a critical juncture, with global quotas hitting a ten-year low.
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Quota Cuts: The global Atlantic cod quota is projected at only 640,000 tonnes in 2026, a 10% decrease from the previous year. The Barents Sea quota will see the most significant reduction, plummeting 22% from 2025's target to just 250,000 tonnes.
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National Impacts: Norway's quota is projected to be 131,000 tonnes (-25%), Russia's around 119,000 tonnes (-21%). While Iceland becomes the largest supplier, its quota will also decrease by 4% to 204,000 tonnes. Only Greenland and some North American fisheries saw minor quota increases.
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Record Prices: Amid tightening supplies, Norwegian Atlantic cod prices surpassed $10,000 per tonne (CFR) for the first time in week 43 of 2025, setting a new record. Undercurrent News reported a $175 weekly increase for head-on and gutted (H&G) cod (1–2.5 kg), with Russian H&G cod (1–2 kg) rising $100. A $1,400 per tonne price differential between Norway and Russia persists.
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Strong Chinese Demand: Despite some buyers' concerns about "inflated" prices, the market remains stable, driven by strong purchasing activity from Chinese processors, especially for European orders in the fourth quarter. As one forum participant noted, "China had already secured its raw materials" while European buyers hesitated.
Pollock Supplies Decline, Russia Dominates
Pollock also faces significant quota pressures, further contributing to the whitefish shortage.
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US Reduction: The US quota for Alaskan pollock will be reduced by 100,000 tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes in 2026. The quota for Pacific cod will also decrease to 148,000 tonnes.
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Global Impact: Consequently, global pollock production is expected to decline to approximately 3.594 million tonnes.
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Russian Dominance: In stark contrast, Russia's pollock quota is projected to remain stable at 2.06 million tonnes, accounting for a dominant 57% of global supply, solidifying its position in the international market.
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Rising Russian Prices: Russian pollock prices for H&G stock over 25 cm reached $1,630 per tonne (CFR) between weeks 42 and 43, reflecting a steady increase since the year's start. Industry experts believe this minor increase signals ongoing market tension, with no potential for further decline at current high levels.
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Market Restructuring: Haddock vs. Saithe
The current whitefish landscape is also seeing a divergence in species performance and price, leading to market restructuring.
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Haddock Surge: In contrast to cod and pollock, haddock production is projected to increase by approximately 8% in 2026. The Barents Sea catch quota will rise to 142,000 tonnes, with Norway receiving 80,000 tonnes and Russia 62,000 tonnes. Iceland and the UK also saw slight quota increases. While Norwegian haddock prices remained stable, Russian prices increased by $200 per tonne, narrowing the price differential to $700 per tonne.
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Saithe and Seabass: The saithe quota continues its decline, with the global quota for 2026 reduced from 312,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes. Norway's quota was cut by 7,000 tonnes to 173,000 tonnes. The seabass quota remains unchanged at 168,000 tonnes.
Aquaculture's Role: A "Buffer Zone" in a Tight Market
The forum also updated its forecast for global farmed whitefish production, with species like pangasius and tilapia emerging as potential "buffer zones" for future supply.
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Pangasius and Tilapia Growth: Pangasius production in Vietnam is expected to increase by 40,000 tonnes. Tilapia production in Indonesia and Egypt is also projected to grow significantly.
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China's Slowdown: However, tilapia production growth in China has slowed considerably due to weak export demand in some regions and stricter environmental regulations.
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Limited Short-Term Impact: While farmed whitefish offers long-term promise, industry experts believe it will be challenging to fill the structural gap in wild whitefish supply in the short term.
The global whitefish industry is now entering an era of "geopolitical pricing," marked by unresolved issues in the Barents Sea negotiations, reduced Alaskan production, and concentrated Chinese processing orders. Experts anticipate high whitefish prices to persist until at least the end of 2026, forcing the global supply chain to find a new equilibrium amidst this tightening cycle.
Partial source from fishretail.ru
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