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Industrial robots produce photovoltaic modules in Zaozhuang Economic Development Zone, Shandong Province, China (Rand)
Beyond Tariffs: What the U.S. Can Learn from China's Industrial Playbook
CHINA
Wednesday, April 23, 2025, 04:00 (GMT + 9)
As the U.S. attempts to revitalize domestic manufacturing—often via tariffs, especially on China—RAND's analysis of China’s industrial rise provides critical insights that go well beyond protectionism.
China’s rapid evolution from poverty to global manufacturing dominance is the most significant industrial expansion in modern history. While China's political system and centralized governance are not easily replicable, elements of its strategy may hold lessons for Washington.
More Than Tariffs: The Tools Behind China’s Rise
China’s industrial transformation was not led by traditional import substitution or high tariffs. Instead, Beijing employed a comprehensive mix of incentives and restrictions to stimulate domestic production, emphasizing foreign direct investment (FDI) as a vehicle for technology transfer and skill development. While trade barriers played a role, they were only part of a broader, well-integrated policy approach.
One standout feature is China’s emphasis on long-term strategic planning, which has helped create a predictable environment for investors. Multi-year industrial plans—like Made in China 2025 and sector-specific roadmaps for robotics or EVs—provide clarity and direction that contrast with shorter-term, reactive policies often seen elsewhere.
Why Export-Led Growth Isn’t a U.S. Option
China’s earlier export-driven growth was possible because it began from a relatively low economic base. Today, as the second-largest economy, it cannot rely solely on exports to drive growth. The U.S., with its even larger and more mature economy, is even less suited to this model. High labor costs and limited overseas demand make it difficult to match China’s earlier success in export-led manufacturing.
Additionally, China no longer manipulates its exchange rate to boost exports. While it once maintained a weak yuan to promote trade surpluses, it now prioritizes exchange rate stability and curbing capital outflows. This shift undermines any claim that U.S. trade deficits stem solely from Chinese currency manipulation.
China’s Real Focus: Productivity and Innovation
Despite lower wages, China isn’t focused on job creation through manufacturing. Its priority is manufacturing productivity, driven by automation, robotics, and AI. With factories increasingly designed for minimal human labor, the emphasis is on capital-intensive growth, not labor-intensive industry. This mirrors what any U.S. manufacturing resurgence will likely require: high-tech, efficient systems rather than mass employment.
Further, China is investing heavily in R&D, aiming to lead in future technologies. While U.S. private enterprise still dominates innovation, China’s government is rapidly increasing its funding for both applied and basic research. According to RAND, China is on track to surpass the U.S. in overall R&D spending (in purchasing power parity terms), which could erode America’s long-held innovation edge.
A Sophisticated Industrial Policy
China’s industrial policies go far beyond simple subsidies or tariffs. The state provides tax breaks, subsidized land, procurement preferences, localization mandates, and direct investment. State-owned banks and financial institutions also align with government goals. While this level of coordination is enabled by China’s centralized political model, the principles of coordination, long-term planning, and multi-sectoral support still offer valuable takeaways.
Importantly, Chinese policymakers have been strategic about maintaining access to foreign technology and inputs—only substituting them once domestic alternatives were viable. Even as China pushes for self-reliance, it avoids sabotaging its export competitiveness by prematurely raising import costs.
FDI has been central to this success. Beijing encouraged foreign firms, often through joint ventures, which allowed local firms to absorb technology and develop domestic capabilities. Over time, private Chinese firms became more dominant in exports, reflecting the partial success of China’s "indigenous innovation" strategy.
Planning, Predictability, and Industrial Coordination
At the core of China’s strategy is predictable, long-term planning. Five-year plans and industry-specific roadmaps enable coordination between firms, financial institutions, and different levels of government. RAND notes that this clarity attracts investment and fosters innovation, especially in sectors perceived to have implicit government support.
When goals shift, China has demonstrated adaptability, issuing new guidance when needed. While this top-down model can lead to misallocations and overcapacity, it also provides a consistent framework for industrial growth.
Lessons for U.S. Policymakers
RAND’s analysis cautions against simply copying China’s model but emphasizes key takeaways for Washington:
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Tariffs alone are insufficient. China’s rise was built on a multi-tool approach, especially the use of FDI to gain knowledge and capacity.
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Strategic planning matters. Long-term predictability is essential to encourage business investment.
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Export-led growth isn’t viable for the U.S., given its economic size and high costs.
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The yuan is no longer undervalued, and managing exchange rates is far more complex today.
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Capital-intensive automation is the future, not labor-intensive job recovery.
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Public R&D funding is critical. China’s gains in this area could threaten U.S. technological leadership if federal R&D budgets stagnate.
While the U.S. and China differ in governance, industrial policy goals, and economic structure, the evolution of China’s approach offers valuable insight. If Washington aims to strengthen its manufacturing base, it must look beyond tariffs and develop a coordinated, forward-looking industrial strategy that balances innovation, investment, and global competitiveness.
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