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Mackerel Prices Surge to Record Highs, Squeezing Japanese Importers’ Margins

JAPAN
Monday, February 02, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Rising Norwegian export prices, weak domestic demand, and currency volatility combine to create one of the toughest operating environments in years

With Norwegian Atlantic mackerel prices hitting historic highs, Japanese seafood importers are facing their most challenging business conditions in recent years. Multiple market participants told industry media that while raw material procurement costs continue to rise sharply, domestic selling prices in Japan are failing to keep pace. As a result, profit margins at the import stage have been severely compressed, with some deals nearing or even slipping into loss-making territory, according to Food World.

Driven by expectations of reduced catch quotas in 2025 and further cuts anticipated in 2026, procurement prices for Norwegian mackerel surged rapidly beginning last autumn. In October 2025, the CFR price of Norwegian-origin Atlantic mackerel reached an all-time high of US$5.50–5.60 per kilogram. Since August, export prices for frozen whole mackerel weighing under 600 grams continued climbing, setting new records across the board by the end of the year.

Official Norwegian export data highlights the scale of the increase. In December 2025 alone, the average export price of Norwegian mackerel to Japan jumped 67% year-on-year, reaching approximately US$4.84 per kilogram. Prices rose even more sharply in other Asian markets, surging 95% to China and 82% to Vietnam. For the first time, the overall monthly average export price exceeded US$5.19 per kilogram, representing an 81% year-on-year increase.

Entering 2026, prices showed brief signs of cooling but remained elevated. Diverging price trends across markets reflected differences in inventory levels, purchasing strategies, and logistics structures. Japanese import prices climbed as early as April 2025, peaking at approximately US$4.37 per kilogram in September before easing slightly. South Korea experienced steady increases throughout the year, with a sharp rise in November, while China—both a traditional processing hub and a growing consumer market—saw import prices accelerate from September, reaching a new high in November.

On the supply side, early-season catches primarily came from Scottish trawlers operating near the Shetland Islands. These fish, typically weighing 425–460 grams, were described by Norwegian sellers as “good quality mackerel.” Asian transaction prices generally ranged between US$5.40 and US$5.50 per kilogram, showing little difference compared with mackerel caught by Norwegian vessels. Several Tokyo-based importers reported that Japanese buyers are now adopting a wait-and-see stance, avoiding active restocking at current price levels.

In contrast, buyers in South Korea and Taiwan have been more successful in passing higher costs downstream. Japanese importers, however, say domestic customers—mainly secondary processing companies—have limited tolerance for price hikes. The selling price of Norwegian mackerel weighing 400–600 grams in Japan has remained around US$5.82 per kilogram, well below the US$6.33–6.40 needed to fully cover costs. “Under such demand conditions, further price increases are very difficult,” one importer admitted.

Exchange rate volatility has added further strain. At the start of the year, the Japanese yen weakened to around US$0.0063 per yen, significantly inflating dollar-denominated procurement costs. Although the yen later recovered, many importers had already locked in high-cost contracts. Some companies attempted to mitigate losses by blending sales of new and older inventory, but industry insiders widely view this as a short-term fix rather than a sustainable solution.

Against this backdrop, Japanese importers and processors are accelerating efforts to diversify raw material sources. In addition to increasing purchases of domestically caught Pacific mackerel and horse mackerel, companies have begun importing alternative species from Oceania. These substitutes, however, face similar constraints. Data shows that in December 2025, the average landed price of Pacific mackerel in Japan rose 60% year-on-year to approximately US$1.96 per kilogram, the highest level in at least four years.

Adding to the concern is the growing prevalence of smaller-sized mackerel in Japanese coastal waters. Whether in the Sea of Japan or the Pacific Ocean, fish weighing over 500 grams now account for only a small share of catches. Most are smaller, leaner fish with lower fat content, reducing their suitability for processing and further limiting their ability to replace imported Norwegian mackerel.

Overall, persistently high Norwegian mackerel prices, currency volatility, and sluggish domestic demand in Japan are collectively eroding the operating space for importers. With catch quotas expected to tighten further, industry insiders widely believe that the era of high costs is unlikely to end soon, forcing the Japanese mackerel supply chain into a deeper and more prolonged period of adjustment.

🇯🇵 日本語版（Japanese）

サバ価格が過去最高水準に急騰、日本の輸入業者の利益を圧迫

ノルウェー産輸出価格の上昇、国内需要の低迷、為替変動が重なり、近年で最も厳しい事業環境に

ノルウェー産大西洋サバの価格が過去最高水準に達する中、日本の水産物輸入業者は近年で最も厳しい経営環境に直面している。複数の市場関係者が業界メディアに対し、原料調達コストが急激に上昇する一方で、日本国内の販売価格がそれに追いついておらず、輸入段階での利益が大幅に圧迫されていると語った。Food Worldによると、一部の取引では採算割れ寸前、あるいは赤字に陥っているケースもあるという。

2025年の漁獲枠削減、さらに2026年の追加削減が見込まれていることを背景に、ノルウェー産サバの調達価格は昨年秋から急騰した。2025年10月には、ノルウェー産大西洋サバのCFR価格が過去最高の1キログラム当たり5.50～5.60米ドルに達した。8月以降、600グラム未満の冷凍丸サバの輸出価格は上昇を続け、年末には全面的に記録を更新した。

ノルウェー政府の公式輸出データによると、2025年12月だけで、日本向けノルウェー産サバの平均輸出価格は前年同月比67％増となり、1キログラム当たり約4.84米ドルに達した。中国向けは95％増、ベトナム向けは82％増と、さらに大幅な上昇を記録した。同月の全体平均輸出価格は初めて1キログラム当たり約5.19米ドルを超え、前年比81％増となった。

2026年に入ると市場は一時的に落ち着く兆しを見せたものの、価格水準は依然として高止まりしている。日本の輸入価格は2025年4月から上昇し、9月には1キログラム当たり約4.37米ドルに達した後、やや下落した。韓国では年間を通じて着実に上昇し、11月に大きく上振れした。一方、加工拠点であると同時に消費市場としても存在感を高める中国では、9月以降に急騰し、11月に過去最高を更新した。

供給面では、年初の漁獲は主にシェトランド諸島周辺で操業するスコットランドのトロール船によるものだった。425～460グラムの魚体は、ノルウェー側から「品質の良いサバ」と評価されている。アジア向け価格は概ね1キログラム当たり5.40～5.50米ドルで、ノルウェー船が漁獲したサバとほぼ同水準だった。複数の東京都内の輸入業者は、日本の買い手が現在は様子見姿勢を強め、高値での積極的な在庫補充を控えていると述べている。

韓国や台湾の一部バイヤーが下流への価格転嫁に成功しているのに対し、日本の輸入業者は、主な顧客である二次加工業者の価格受容度が低いと指摘する。日本国内での400～600グラムのノルウェー産サバの販売価格は、長らく1キログラム当たり約5.82米ドルにとどまり、コストを完全に回収するために必要な6.33～6.40米ドルを大きく下回っている。

🇨🇳 中文版（简体中文）

鲭鱼价格创历史新高，日本进口商利润空间遭严重挤压

挪威出口价格上涨、国内需求疲软及汇率波动叠加，形成近年来最严峻的经营环境

随着挪威大西洋鲭鱼价格创下历史新高，日本水产进口商正面临近年来最为严峻的经营环境。多位市场人士向行业媒体表示，原料采购成本持续快速上涨，但日本国内销售价格难以同步提升，导致进口环节利润不断被压缩。据Food World报道，部分交易已接近盈亏平衡点，甚至出现亏损。

受2025年配额削减预期以及2026年可能进一步下调的影响，挪威鲭鱼采购价格自去年秋季起迅速攀升。2025年10月，挪威产大西洋鲭鱼CFR价格升至历史最高的每公斤5.50–5.60美元。自8月以来，600克以下冷冻整条鲭鱼出口价格持续上涨，并在年底全面刷新纪录。

挪威官方出口数据显示，仅在2025年12月，挪威鲭鱼对日本的平均出口价格就同比上涨67%，达到每公斤约4.84美元。对中国和越南的涨幅分别高达95%和82%。当月整体平均出口价格首次突破每公斤约5.19美元，同比上涨81%。

进入2026年后，市场短暂降温，但价格仍维持高位。日本进口价格自2025年4月起上行，并于9月达到每公斤约4.37美元的高点。韩国价格全年稳步上涨，并在11月明显跳升；而作为传统加工基地并逐步成为消费市场的中国，其进口价格自9月起快速上行，并在11月创下新高。

在供应端，年初的主要捕捞来自在设得兰群岛附近作业的苏格兰拖网船。这些425–460克的鲭鱼被挪威方面评价为“品质良好的鲭鱼”。亚洲市场成交价普遍在每公斤5.40–5.50美元之间，与挪威船只捕捞的鲭鱼价格几乎没有差异。多位东京进口商表示，日本买家目前采取观望态度，不再在高价位积极补库。

与日本形成对比的是，部分韩国和台湾买家较为成功地将成本向下游转嫁。然而，日本进口商普遍反映，其主要客户——二次加工企业——对涨价的接受度有限。目前，400–600克规格的挪威鲭鱼在日本的销售价格长期徘徊在每公斤约5.82美元，明显低于完全覆盖成本所需的6.33–6.40美元。

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