The year 2026 began by tipping the balance in favor of Vietnamese shrimp at the expense of Ecuadorian shrimp.

Global Shrimp Market Divergence: Vietnam Hits Multi-Year Highs While Ecuador Slumps to Record Lows

WORLDWIDE
Friday, January 16, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

The global shrimp industry is experiencing a stark geographical split in early 2026. While Southeast Asian producers grapple with tight supplies and soaring costs,

Latin American exporters are battling a price collapse driven by oversupply and fierce competition. As of the third week of January 2026, the Global Farm Price Index indicates that the average price for 60-count shrimp sits at US$3.64 per kilogram, a 6% decline compared to the same period in 2025.

Vietnam and China: Supply Scarcity Drives Prices

In Vietnam, farmgate prices for white shrimp have surged to the 95th percentile of the past three years. In the most recent tracking period, prices rose by 1,000 VND (US$0.04) per kilogram. Experts in Ho Chi Minh City note that despite the traditional export off-season, domestic demand and a severe shortage of raw materials have kept prices near historic peaks.

Meanwhile, the Chinese market is undergoing a volatile transition. Following a price surge during the New Year, prices in Guangdong fell by 3 yuan (US$0.42) per kilogram from their holiday peak. However, the Haid Group predicts this dip will be short-lived. With the Lunar New Year approaching on February 17, 2026, restocking demand combined with cold weather slowing shrimp growth is expected to trigger another price hike by mid-February.

India and Indonesia: Stocking Cycles and Environmental Hurdles

The Indian market, specifically in Andhra Pradesh, saw a price dip of 10 rupees (US$0.12) per kilogram, ending a brief rally. The primary issue for Indian processors is a lack of available inventory; farmers are currently clearing ponds to prepare for the massive February summer stocking. Despite current tightness, India is pivoting toward diversification, with Black Tiger shrimp production projected to reach 120,000 to 150,000 tons this year, pushing total national production past the 1 million ton milestone.

In Indonesia, there are signs of a fragile recovery. In East Java, prices for various sizes rose by 2,000 to 6,000 IDR (US$0.13 to US$0.38) per kilogram. However, these figures remain 13% to 18% lower than last year. The industry is still reeling from the aftermath of 2025 floods and strict radiation monitoring policies implemented by Japan, which have hampered export flows.

Ecuador’s Dominance Amidst Price Freefall

Ecuador continues to assert its dominance as a global export powerhouse, though at a significant cost to its profit margins. In the third week of 2026, prices for Ecuadorian white shrimp plummeted between 1% and 10% week-on-week. Current valuations are a staggering 23% to 30% lower than they were twelve months ago, marking a three-year low.

By leveraging a competitive 15% tariff compared to the 50% duty faced by Indian counterparts, Ecuador has officially become the top supplier to the United States.

Regional Price Comparison (60-count White Shrimp)

The following table highlights the price disparities across major producing hubs in mid-January 2026:

As the first quarter of 2026 progresses, analysts expect this "split-screen" economy to persist. High-cost, low-supply environments in Southeast Asia will continue to contrast sharply with the high-volume, low-price strategy currently defining the Latin American sector.

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