The project delved into the hopes, fears, expectations, and needs of fishers to understand how the profession is likely to evolve by 2050

Commission presents ‘Fishers of the Future’, a study that explores different scenarios for the EU fishing sector towards 2050

EUROPEAN UNION
Friday, January 10, 2025, 06:00 (GMT + 9)

In 2024, Tetra Tech and partners, a consortium contracted by the European Commission, engaged in a consultation process with EU fishers, their representatives from EU advisory councils, and social partners. The goal was to explore potential future scenarios for the fishing sector by 2050.

The outcome is the Fishers of the Future study, an EU-wide multi-stakeholder foresight project that explores the changes that the profession, role and identity of fishers may face.

The study’s findings, along with discussions during and after the closing event, will inform the reflections planned throughout 2025 on the European Oceans Pact and the evaluation of the common fisheries policy (CFP) regulation. These elements will serve as a foundation for shaping a future vision for fisheries in 2040.

Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans Costas Kadis said:

"The Fishers of the Future findings will help us address our biggest challenge: how to ensure long-term competitiveness and sustainability for the fishing sector. We have several concrete scenarios and profiles to consider. As we shape our policy in the coming months, we must take into account the trends and potential challenges described and leverage this knowledge to secure a thriving sector and a healthy marine environment for generations to come".

Four scenarios based on climate and market dynamics

Using the collective knowledge of those consulted, four different scenarios were developed (see image below) based on two main axes, namely the extent of climate and biodiversity changes in marine ecosystems and consumer demand within market dynamics. 

Click on the image to enlarge

Each scenario encompasses a complex interplay of other factors such as the geopolitical landscape, interactions with other coastal activities, the use of technologies, operational costs, recruitment challenges, etc.

Small-scale and large-scale fisher profiles were developed, considering the potential effects of the various scenarios on their activities. These profiles are detailed in the full study.

The four scenarios are:

Scenario 1: Thriving responsibly (The EU fishing industry has adjusted well to challenges, high demand for EU-caught fish)

Scenario 2: Chasing declining stocks (climate change, declining stocks, high demand for EU-caught fish)

Scenario 3: Contested markets (moderate climate change, low demand for EU-caught fish)

Scenario 4: Scarcity and survival (scarce fish stocks, low demand for EU-caught fish)

Event to present the study

The Commission will host an event on the morning of Tuesday, 14 January 2025, in Brussels and online. The event will focus on discussing future scenarios and profiles of fishers and exploring how they can contribute to building pragmatic solutions for the challenges the sector is facing.

Background

The ‘Fishers of the Future’ study is a key element of the ‘Pact for Fisheries and Oceans’, announced in February 2023, which examines the future role of fishers in society up to 2050.

The project delved into the hopes, fears, expectations, and needs of fishers to understand how the profession is likely to evolve by 2050. It also explored the expansion of fishers' role in society beyond providing high-quality seafood.

Tetra Tech International Development led this study for the European Commission, with partner organisations Poseidon Aquatic Resource Management Europe and Ipsos, in addition to experts from F&S, Trinomics, and national fisheries researchers from 22 EU countries. 

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