Photo: U.N./MSC/FIS

Tuna and Highly Migratory Fisheries Most Vulnerable to Climate Change, Global Study Finds

WORLDWIDE
Wednesday, November 05, 2025, 08:00 (GMT + 9)

Modelling of over 500 sustainably certified fisheries suggests species like tuna, bonito, and billfish are highly exposed to shifting stocks, urging governments to intensify international cooperation on management.

New research highlights that fisheries targeting highly migratory species, particularly tunas, bonitos, and billfishes, are the most at risk from the impacts of climate change, including shifting fish stocks and ecosystem-wide reduction in fish numbers. The analysis, which examined more than 500 sustainably certified fisheries globally, found that the movement of these species into new waters and jurisdictions is likely to escalate disagreements between governments over catch allocations, potentially leading to overfishing.

Exposure to climate change effects creates risk to fisheries’ management globally

Vulnerability Across Species

The research paper, 'Climate change risks to future sustainable fishing using global seafood ecolabel data', was led by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and published in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability. It assessed risks across 19 different categories of seafood.

The findings placed fisheries targeting highly migratory species at the highest risk. Following closely were those targeting small pelagic species like mackerel, herring, capelin, and blue whiting, and then whitefish such as cod, haddock, and plaice.

In contrast, fisheries targeting invertebrates like bivalves, crabs, and prawns were found to be the least likely to suffer impacts like international management disputes, as these species are generally sedentary. Researchers did note, however, that invertebrates remain vulnerable to other climate-driven issues not covered in the study, such as ocean acidification and marine heatwaves.

The study analyze a subset of global fisheries with high management performance (MSC-certified), suggesting risk may be higher among non-MSC-certified fisheries. Click on the image to enlarge it

The Migration and Management Challenge

As ocean temperatures rise, migratory species alter their routes, seeking cooler waters. This has been observed globally; for example, Atlantic bluefin tuna have reappeared in UK waters after decades, and signs suggest tuna in the Pacific are moving from the west to the east of the region.

When these stocks move into new jurisdictions or the high seas, they fall under different countries' regulations, increasing the complexity of management. Lauren Koerner, lead author and Data Science Manager for the MSC, stated: "Existing agreements between countries quickly become obsolete because the fish stocks have moved."

Calls for Global Collaboration

The research, supported by the Tuna Project of the Common Oceans Program led by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), emphasizes the urgent need for greater international cooperation to mitigate these risks.

Key recommendations include:

• Implementing adaptive allocations, where countries' shares of fish stocks are adjusted in response to shifting populations.

• Further reducing greenhouse gas emissions to ensure the long-term sustainability of fish stocks.

Joe Zelasney, Common Oceans Tuna Project Manager, warned that the economic impact could be "devastating" for some developing small island states dependent on these fisheries. He stressed the importance of governments and the five tuna regional fisheries management organisations working closely together.

Ahead of the COP30 UN climate negotiations in November, the MSC is explicitly urging governments to collaborate on management across borders. Koerner concluded, "Governments and fisheries management organisations need to adapt their practices to keep pace and ensure our oceans remain healthy." The researchers also suggest that non-certified fisheries, which lack the robust management plans of MSC-certified ones, are likely even more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

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